What's Going to Win Best Picture? We Rank the Oscar Field

3. "A Complete Unknown"

James Mangold's Bob Dylan movie is also widely liked and lacks any precursor win. But admiration for "A Complete Unknown" is widespread and it could, just as "Conclave" might, pull out an upset by rising high on a plethora of ballots. Unlike "Conclave," Mangold was nominated for best director, though, and it has the benefit of being led by Hollywood's biggest young star, Timothée Chalamet. Hollywood likes to, in picking a best picture winner, say something about its future. Chalamet's star power could be convincing enough. Plus Searchlight Pictures has previously steered quite a few best-picture winners ("Nomadland," "The Shape of Water"). Mangold's movie has momentum, which, even if it doesn't lead to best picture, may propel Chalamet to best actor over Adrien Brody for "The Brutalist."